Poll the network, cut it by every demographic we hold, and watch the numbers move like a real sample — in seconds, with no fielding cost. These voters are simulated; every question and every demographic below is drawn from the questions we really ask our members.
Audience: All simulated voters · Question source: From our party forums (the debate threads)
Agree leads with 48.8% — a solid but not commanding lead (7.8 pts over Undecided / Depends on details).
Every segment we hold, ranked. Sort it the way you think about the race:
| # | Segment | Demographic set | n | For the leader | vs. average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strong Republican | Party identification | 159 | 98.7% | +49.9 pts |
| 2 | Not-so-strong Republican | Party identification | 115 | 90.4% | +41.6 pts |
| 3 | Independent / Leaning Republican | Party identification | 122 | 72.1% | +23.3 pts |
| 4 | NJ | State | 21 | 71.4% | +22.6 pts |
| 5 | AL | State | 10 | 70% | +21.2 pts |
| 6 | 55-64 | Age band | 147 | 64.6% | +15.8 pts |
| 7 | Farmette | Location type | 96 | 64.6% | +15.8 pts |
| 8 | Unable to work / Disability | Employment | 52 | 63.5% | +14.7 pts |
| 9 | 65-74 | Age band | 154 | 62.3% | +13.5 pts |
| 10 | Debate regular | Forum engagement | 103 | 62.1% | +13.3 pts |
| 11 | Retired | Employment | 212 | 61.8% | +13 pts |
| 12 | Non-high school graduate | Education | 83 | 61.4% | +12.6 pts |
| 13 | 75+ | Age band | 92 | 60.9% | +12.1 pts |
| 14 | Own my home (with or without a mortgage) | Housing | 611 | 60.1% | +11.3 pts |
| 15 | DE | State | 24 | 58.3% | +9.5 pts |
| 16 | MS | State | 12 | 58.3% | +9.5 pts |
| 17 | UT | State | 72 | 58.3% | +9.5 pts |
| 18 | Yes, grandchildren only (not primary dependent children) | K-12 children in household | 184 | 58.2% | +9.4 pts |
| 19 | PA | State | 38 | 57.9% | +9.1 pts |
| 20 | Country — 5 to 50 acres | Location type | 133 | 57.9% | +9.1 pts |
| 21 | Country — 1 to 5 acres | Location type | 125 | 57.6% | +8.8 pts |
| 22 | OR | State | 28 | 57.1% | +8.3 pts |
| 23 | MT | State | 21 | 57.1% | +8.3 pts |
| 24 | KS | State | 7 | 57.1% | +8.3 pts |
| 25 | Widowed | Marital status | 70 | 57.1% | +8.3 pts |
| 26 | AZ | State | 36 | 55.6% | +6.8 pts |
| 27 | Farm | Location type | 102 | 54.9% | +6.1 pts |
| 28 | ND | State | 33 | 54.5% | +5.7 pts |
| 29 | NM | State | 37 | 54.1% | +5.3 pts |
| 30 | DC | State | 13 | 53.8% | +5 pts |
| 31 | Country — no acres | Location type | 122 | 52.5% | +3.7 pts |
| 32 | 3 | Household size | 170 | 52.4% | +3.6 pts |
| 33 | HI | State | 27 | 51.9% | +3.1 pts |
| 34 | Regular poster | Forum engagement | 310 | 51.9% | +3.1 pts |
| 35 | $75,000-$99,999 | Household income | 137 | 51.8% | +3 pts |
| 36 | Every single election (Primary & General) | Voting consistency | 408 | 51.7% | +2.9 pts |
| 37 | Female | Gender | 475 | 51.6% | +2.8 pts |
| 38 | VT | State | 64 | 51.6% | +2.8 pts |
| 39 | Only in major Presidential elections | Voting consistency | 185 | 51.4% | +2.6 pts |
| 40 | Some college / Associate degree / Vocational training | Education | 284 | 51.4% | +2.6 pts |
| 41 | 0 | Registered voter status | 115 | 51.3% | +2.5 pts |
| 42 | $100,000-$149,999 | Household income | 123 | 51.2% | +2.4 pts |
| 43 | Yes, children in Homeschool programs | K-12 children in household | 57 | 50.9% | +2.1 pts |
| 44 | Occasional poster | Forum engagement | 383 | 50.9% | +2.1 pts |
| 45 | 6+ | Household size | 77 | 50.6% | +1.8 pts |
| 46 | premium | Voice tier | 274 | 50.4% | +1.6 pts |
| 47 | MA | State | 32 | 50% | +1.2 pts |
| 48 | ME | State | 67 | 49.3% | +0.5 pts |
| 49 | Rarely vote | Voting consistency | 69 | 49.3% | +0.5 pts |
| 50 | Divorced / Separated | Marital status | 126 | 49.2% | +0.4 pts |
| 51 | Married | Marital status | 497 | 49.1% | +0.3 pts |
| 52 | $50,000-$74,999 | Household income | 224 | 49.1% | +0.3 pts |
| 53 | 2 | Household size | 317 | 48.9% | +0.1 pts |
| 54 | 4 | Household size | 133 | 48.9% | +0.1 pts |
| 55 | $25,000-$49,999 | Household income | 205 | 48.8% | +0 pts |
| 56 | 1 | Registered voter status | 885 | 48.5% | -0.3 pts |
| 57 | No school-aged children or grandchildren in the household | K-12 children in household | 475 | 48.4% | -0.4 pts |
| 58 | $150,000+ | Household income | 91 | 48.4% | -0.4 pts |
| 59 | free | Voice tier | 726 | 48.2% | -0.6 pts |
| 60 | Postgraduate or professional degree (Master’s, Doctorate, Law, Medicine) | Education | 121 | 47.9% | -0.9 pts |
Segments under 5 completes are hidden. "Battlegrounds" sorts the segments closest to a 50/50 tie — that is where message testing earns its money.
Each option is a bundle of demographic cuts. Option 1 is always included; the rest are the bundles you define. Every cut below is computed from the same simulated response set.
Included with every poll. The six cuts every campaign needs on day one.
Who is actually at the kitchen table: marital status, household size, children, housing, density.
Pocketbook voters: education, employment situation, household income.
Will they actually show up (and do they talk about it): voting consistency, voice tier, forum engagement.
What they already told us on the signup questionnaire and in the party forums — the deepest cut we hold.
The demo runs one poll at a time. In the pollster workspace you write and save your own polls, keep an audience template per race, re-run them as opinion moves, and compare runs side by side.
Open the pollster workspace →Private demo · token-gated · noindex · not linked publicly. Panel seeded from the same fields our members complete at register_step2.php.